📈 Low Risk, High Return Investment Strategy
Complete Guide to Japanese IPO Investing
81% Win Rate (2004-2025) | 7 Ways to Boost Your Odds【Latest】
🌏 This Article is For
- Expats in Japan looking to grow wealth through IPO investing
- Investment beginners wanting to improve their IPO winning odds
- Anyone comparing Japanese securities companies’ IPO lottery systems
💡 With a residence card and My Number, anyone can open a securities account and start!
Complete Guide to Japanese IPO Investing! How to Increase Your Winning Odds & Choose the Right Broker
“What is an IPO? How do I participate?” “Is it really hard to win the lottery?”
IPO (Initial Public Offering) investing is known for low risk and high returns. From 2004 to 2025, approximately 81% of IPOs had opening prices higher than their offering prices, making it highly profitable when you win.
The appeal of IPO investing is achieving multiple returns with relatively small capital. For example, Aidemy in 2023: a ¥105,000 investment turned into approximately ¥556,000! A gain of 429.5%, multiplying capital by 5.3x.
While profit amounts may be smaller than large IPOs, small IPOs can offer huge opportunities in terms of ROI (return rate).
This article covers IPO basics, techniques to improve your winning odds, and lottery systems of various securities companies.
- 1. What is an IPO? The Basics
- 2. Why IPO Investing is Recommended
- 3. Historical IPO Performance Data
- 4. How Much Can You Earn? Latest Rankings
- 5. Legendary IPO TOP3
- 6. How to Apply for IPOs
- 7. Securities Company IPO Lottery Systems【All 16】
- 8. 7 Ways to Increase Your Winning Odds
- 9. Latest IPO Schedule
- 10. Risks and Considerations
- 11. FAQ
- 12. Summary
1. What is an IPO? The Basics
IPO stands for “Initial Public Offering”. Simply put, it’s when a company lists its shares on a stock exchange for the first time.
1️⃣ Company announces listing (IPO approval)
2️⃣ Investors participate in book-building (demand submission)
3️⃣ Offering price is determined
4️⃣ Lottery determines winners
5️⃣ Trading begins on listing day, opening price is set
6️⃣ Sell at opening price for profit!
How IPO Profits Work
IPO shares can be purchased at the “offering price” before listing. The first price in the market on listing day is called the “opening price.”
Offering price: ¥1,050 × 100 shares (Investment: ¥105,000)
Opening price: ¥5,560 × 100 shares (Sale: ¥556,000)
Profit: ¥451,000 (+429.5%, about 5.3x!)
※Aidemy 2023 actual example
Popular IPOs often see opening prices 2x or 3x the offering price. Some have even exceeded 10x! This is the greatest appeal of IPO investing.
Basic IPO Terminology
| Term | Description |
|---|---|
| Offering Price | Price set before listing. Winners can purchase at this price. |
| Opening Price | First price set in the market on listing day. |
| Book Building (BB) | Period for collecting investor demand. Must apply during this period to participate in lottery. |
| Lead Underwriter | Main securities company handling the IPO. Gets the largest share allocation. |
| Breaking Issue | When opening price falls below offering price, resulting in a loss. |
| Deposit Requirement | Funds needed to participate in lottery. Some brokers don’t require this. |
2. Why IPO Investing is Recommended
IPO investing is known for its high win rate among stock investments. Let’s look at why.
- High Win Rate: About 81% of IPOs from 2004-2025 had opening prices above offering prices
- Low Risk: Funds fully returned if not selected. Zero participation cost
- High Returns from Small Capital: ¥100,000 investments can return 2x, 3x, or even 5x+
- Quick Profits: Sell on listing day for profits within days to weeks
3. Historical IPO Performance Data
Let’s look at IPO performance from 2004-2025. Average win rate of 81%, average first-day profit of about ¥200,000 – impressive numbers!
| Year | IPO Count | Opening > Offering | Win Rate | Avg Gain | Avg First-Day Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 55 | 46 | 84% | 35.3% (1.4x) | ¥52,298 |
| 2024 | 86 | 64 | 74% | 30.5% (1.3x) | ¥43,787 |
| 2023 | 96 | 67 | 70% | 54.9% (1.5x) | ¥84,532 |
| 2022 | 91 | 72 | 79% | 46.5% (1.5x) | ¥67,200 |
| 2021 | 125 | 103 | 82% | 52.5% (1.5x) | ¥104,343 |
| 2020 | 93 | 69 | 74% | 105.6% (2.1x) | ¥193,482 |
| 2019 | 86 | 76 | 88% | 82.1% (1.8x) | ¥167,527 |
| 2018 | 90 | 80 | 89% | 116.5% (2.2x) | ¥245,771 |
| 2017 | 90 | 82 | 91% | 109.2% (2.1x) | ¥213,283 |
| 2016 | 83 | 67 | 81% | 71.0% (1.7x) | ¥134,022 |
| 2015 | 92 | 82 | 89% | 87.3% (1.9x) | ¥162,296 |
| 2014 | 77 | 59 | 77% | 88.8% (1.9x) | ¥186,194 |
| 2013 | 54 | 52 | 96% | 117.1% (2.2x) | ¥209,441 |
| 2012 | 46 | 37 | 80% | 54.6% (1.5x) | ¥68,533 |
| 2011 | 36 | 19 | 53% | 23.9% (1.2x) | ¥41,239 |
| 2010 | 22 | 10 | 45% | 16.2% (1.2x) | ¥41,045 |
| 2009 | 19 | 13 | 68% | 47.8% (1.5x) | ¥101,026 |
| 2008 | 49 | 20 | 41% | 62.6% (1.6x) | ¥30,141 |
| 2007 | 121 | 89 | 74% | 50.6% (1.5x) | ¥97,386 |
| 2006 | 188 | 159 | 85% | 103.0% (2.0x) | ¥246,431 |
| 2005 | 158 | 151 | 96% | 161.1% (2.6x) | ¥534,370 |
| 2004 | 175 | 165 | 94% | 110.3% (2.1x) | ¥446,231 |
📊 Average Win Rate: 81% (Opening > Offering)
💰 Average First-Day Profit: ~¥200,000
📈 Average Gain: 74.0% (1.7x)
2005 was exceptional with 2.6x average gain, with profits exceeding ¥530,000!
4. How Much Can You Earn? Latest Rankings
Let’s see how much profit IPO investing can actually generate.
2024 IPO Top Gainers TOP5
| Rank | Company | Listing Date | Offering | Opening | Gain | Profit (100 shares) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 1st | Jinjibu (142A) | 3/22 | ¥1,750 | ¥3,980 | +127.4% | +¥223,000 |
| 🥈 2nd | Cocolive (137A) | 2/28 | ¥1,780 | ¥3,990 | +124.2% | +¥221,000 |
| 🥉 3rd | Info Strategy Tech (155A) | 3/28 | ¥460 | ¥1,021 | +122.0% | +¥56,100 |
| 4th | Hikari Foods (138A) | 2/28 | ¥2,660 | ¥5,850 | +119.9% | +¥319,000 |
| 5th | Forcia (304A) | 12/26 | ¥1,750 | ¥3,640 | +108.0% | +¥189,000 |
2023 IPO Top Gainers TOP5
| Rank | Company | Listing Date | Offering | Opening | Gain | Profit (100 shares) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 1st | Aidemy (5577) | 6/22 | ¥1,050 | ¥5,560 | +429.5% | +¥451,000 |
| 🥈 2nd | Genova (5570) | 4/18 | ¥470 | ¥2,106 | +348.1% | +¥163,600 |
| 🥉 3rd | ispace (9348) | 4/12 | ¥254 | ¥1,000 | +293.7% | +¥74,600 |
| 4th | Technology (5248) | 1/26 | ¥1,000 | ¥3,650 | +265.0% | +¥265,000 |
| 5th | AeroEdge (7409) | 7/4 | ¥1,690 | ¥5,860 | +246.7% | +¥417,000 |
ispace in 2023: Only ¥25,400 investment (¥254 × 100 shares) generated +¥74,600 profit!
Gain of +293.7%, capital grew about 4x!
While the profit amount is small, the ROI is incredible.
5. Legendary IPO TOP3
Here are the 3 legendary IPOs that generated the largest profits in history.
| Rank | Company | Year | Offering | Opening | Multiple | Profit (100 shares) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🥇 1st | HEROZ | 2018 | ¥4,500 | ¥49,000 | ~10.9x | +¥4,450,000 |
| 🥈 2nd | Headwaters | 2020 | ¥2,400 | ¥28,560 | ~11.9x | +¥2,616,000 |
| 🥉 3rd | Serverworks | 2019 | ¥4,780 | ¥18,000 | ~3.8x | +¥1,322,000 |
※Profit calculated based on 100 shares purchased, sold at opening price
HEROZ in 2018: ¥450,000 investment became approximately ¥4,900,000!
A single stock generated +¥4,450,000 profit – truly legendary.
While such jackpots are rare, consistent applications across multiple accounts can eventually lead to a win!
6. How to Apply for IPOs
To start IPO investing, you need to open securities accounts. Here’s the application process.
Open Securities Accounts
Open accounts at brokers with IPO services like SBI Securities, Rakuten Securities, Monex Securities. Opening multiple accounts is recommended.
Check IPO Information
After listing approval, IPO info is published on broker websites. Confirm book-building period, price range, lead underwriter, etc.
Apply During Book Building
Submit your desired shares and price during BB period (usually 5 days to 1 week). Applying at the upper price limit is standard.
Check Lottery Results
Lottery is conducted after offering price is set. Check if you won, are on standby, or lost.
Purchase if Selected
If selected, confirm your purchase intent. Funds are required at this point.
Sell on Listing Day (First-Day Selling)
Sell with a market order on listing day to sell at opening price. This is “first-day selling.”
Some brokers require funds upfront (deposit required), others don’t (no deposit).
No Deposit Required Matsui, Nomura, Mizuho, Okasan Online, SBI Neo Trade, DMM
→ Apply without advance deposit! Fund after winning.
7. Securities Company IPO Lottery Systems【All 16】
IPO lottery systems vary significantly by broker. Choosing the right one is key to winning.
Lottery System Types
| System Type | Description | Benefits |
|---|---|---|
| Equal Lottery | 1 person = 1 vote, regardless of capital | Those with less capital |
| Capital-Weighted | More shares applied = higher odds | Those with more capital |
| Tier-Based | Advantages based on trading history/assets | Active traders |
| Points-Based | Accumulated points increase odds | Persistent applicants |
No Deposit Required No advance funding needed
Deposit Required Must fund in advance
In IPOs, lead underwriters receive an overwhelming majority of shares.
【Allocation Ratio Guide】
• Lead Underwriter: ~80-90% of total shares
• Other Brokers: Remaining ~10-20% shared
This means applying through lead underwriters significantly increases winning odds!
2024 results: SMBC Nikko led 23 IPOs, Daiwa and Mizuho each led 17, Nomura led 15. Major brokers dominate lead roles.
All 16 Securities Companies
🔵 SBI Securities
#1 in Underwriting
IPO Challenge Points
Many Lead Deals
Deposit Required
2024 Deals: 77 (11 as lead) | Accounts: ~14.41M
System: 60% lottery + 30% IPO Challenge Points + 10% discretionary
Features: Points accumulate with losses, increasing future odds. Advantageous with more capital, but even with less, accumulated points give you chances. The must-have account.
Get 100 V Points for opening an account!
🔵 Matsui Securities
Equal Lottery
No Deposit Required
3,000P Bonus
2024 Deals: 53 (0 as lead) | Accounts: ~1.67M
System: 70% equal lottery
Features: No advance deposit needed! Fund after winning. Best capital efficiency. Highly recommended for beginners.
🔴 Rakuten Securities
100% Lottery
Share-Weighted
Deposit Required
2024 Deals: 55 (0 as lead) | Accounts: ~12.56M
System: 100% lottery (share-weighted, with per-stock application limits)
Features: All allocation is lottery-based. More shares applied = more lottery entries. One of few brokers that publishes lottery odds.
🟢 SMBC Nikko Securities
Equal Lottery
Most Lead Deals
Tier-Based
Deposit Required
2024 Deals: 53 (23 as lead) | Accounts: ~3.01M
System: 10% equal lottery + 5% tier-based
Features: Excellent lead underwriter track record among major brokers. Online allocation is equal lottery, giving beginners a chance.
🔵 Monex Securities
100% Equal Lottery
Free Reports
Deposit Required
2024 Deals: 49 (0 as lead) | Accounts: ~2.76M
System: 100% equal lottery (1 person = 1 vote)
Features: Equal chance regardless of capital. Best recommendation for beginners with limited funds. Excellent IPO reports.
🟠 Okasan Online
Equal Lottery
No Deposit Required
Tier-Based
2024 Deals: 49 (2 as lead) | Accounts: ~310K
System: 10% equal lottery + 90% tier-based
Features: No advance deposit needed! Fewer accounts make it a hidden gem. Higher tier = better odds.
🔴 Nomura Securities
Major Broker
Top Lead Underwriter
No Deposit Required
2024 Deals: 45 (15 as lead) | Accounts: ~6.05M
System: 10% lottery (online allocation)
Features: Japan’s largest securities company. Overwhelming lead underwriter track record. No advance deposit required.
🔵 Mizuho Securities
Major Broker
Many Lead Deals
No Deposit Required
2024 Deals: 44 (17 as lead) | Accounts: ~1.85M
System: 10% lottery (online allocation)
Features: Part of Mizuho Financial Group. Excellent lead underwriter track record. No advance deposit required – very convenient.
🔵 Daiwa Securities
Major Broker
Many Lead Deals
Tier System
Deposit Required
2024 Deals: 38 (17 as lead) | Accounts: ~3.55M
System: 10% equal lottery + discretionary allocation
Features: One of Japan’s representative major brokers. Excellent lead underwriter track record. Tier system benefits active traders.
🔵 Daiwa Connect Securities (formerly CONNECT)
Equal Lottery
Ponta Points
Deposit Required
2024 Deals: 36 (0 as lead) | Accounts: ~500K
System: 70% equal lottery
Features: Daiwa Group’s smartphone broker. Access same IPOs as Daiwa Securities! Many deals with equal lottery – great for beginners.
🔵 Tokai Tokyo Securities
Equal Lottery
Regional Lead Deals
Deposit Required
2024 Deals: 32 (4 as lead) | Accounts: ~380K
System: 10% lottery
Features: Regional broker centered in Tokai area. Occasionally acts as lead underwriter – great opportunity when it happens. Fewer accounts is an advantage.
🔵 Iwai Cosmo Securities
Equal Lottery
Deposit Required
2024 Deals: 35 | Accounts: ~160K
System: 10% lottery
Features: Fewer accounts mean higher odds. Kansai-based broker but nationwide account opening available.
🔵 SBI Neo Trade Securities
Equal Lottery
No Deposit Required
Tier System
2024 Deals: 23 | Accounts: Few
System: 10% equal lottery + 90% tier-based
Features: No advance deposit needed! SBI Group member with increasing IPO deals. Low fees too.
🔴 MUFG eSmart Securities (formerly au Kabucom)
Equal Lottery
¥2,500 Bonus
Deposit Required
2024 Deals: 21 (11 as lead) | Accounts: ~1.85M
System: 10% equal lottery
Features: Part of MUFG Group. Earn Ponta points. Supports IPO applications from NISA accounts.
⬛ DMM Kabu (DMM.com Securities)
100% Equal Lottery
No Deposit Required
2024 Deals: 10 | Accounts: ~140K
System: 100% equal lottery
Features: No advance deposit needed! 100% equal lottery – perfect for beginners. Fewer accounts make it a hidden gem. Lower deal count.
🔵 Aizawa Securities
Equal Lottery
Deposit Required
2024 Deals: 9 | Accounts: ~70K
System: 10% lottery
Features: Very few accounts – ultimate hidden gem. Fewer deals but potentially higher odds.
🟠 GMO Click Securities
100% Equal Lottery
GMO Group Perk
Deposit Required
2024 Deals: 0 | Accounts: ~540K
System: 100% equal lottery (preferential allocation for GMO Group IPOs)
Features: Few regular IPO deals, but preferential allocation when GMO Group companies go public. GMO Internet Group shareholders get extra benefits.
| Broker | Deals | Lead | Lottery System | Deposit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SBI Securities | 77 | 11 | 60% lottery + 30% points | Required |
| Rakuten Securities | 55 | 0 | 100% lottery | Required |
| SMBC Nikko | 53 | 23 | 10% equal + 5% tier | Required |
| Matsui Securities | 53 | 0 | 70% equal lottery | Not Required |
| Monex Securities | 49 | 0 | 100% equal lottery | Required |
| Okasan Online | 49 | 2 | 10% equal + 90% tier | Not Required |
| Nomura Securities | 45 | 15 | 10% lottery | Not Required |
| Mizuho Securities | 44 | 17 | 10% lottery | Not Required |
| Daiwa Securities | 38 | 17 | 10% equal lottery | Required |
| Tokai Tokyo | 32 | 4 | 10% lottery | Required |
| MUFG eSmart | 21 | 11 | 10% equal lottery | Required |
| SBI Neo Trade | 23 | 0 | 10% equal + 90% tier | Not Required |
| DMM Kabu | 10 | 0 | 100% equal lottery | Not Required |
| GMO Click | 0 | 0 | 100% equal lottery | Required |
※2024 results. Brokers with more lead deals offer better winning chances!
8. 7 Ways to Increase Your Winning Odds
IPOs are very popular, with winning odds reportedly around 1%. However, these methods can significantly increase your chances.
📌 7 Strategies to Win
① Open Multiple Securities Accounts
The most effective method. Open 5 accounts = 5x the chances! Opening accounts is free, zero risk to increase odds.
1️⃣ SBI Securities (#1 underwriting, points system)
2️⃣ Monex Securities (100% equal lottery)
3️⃣ Matsui Securities (no deposit required)
4️⃣ Rakuten Securities (100% lottery allocation)
5️⃣ SMBC Nikko (most lead deals)
6️⃣ Okasan Online (no deposit, hidden gem)
7️⃣ DMM Kabu (no deposit, 100% equal)
② Use No-Deposit Brokers
Matsui, Nomura, Mizuho, Okasan Online, SBI Neo Trade, DMM require no advance deposit! Apply to multiple lotteries without spreading your capital.
③ Use Family Accounts
Open accounts for your spouse or parents too – your odds increase accordingly. Some brokers also allow accounts in children’s names.
④ Accumulate SBI IPO Challenge Points
SBI Securities awards 1 point per loss. Using points increases winning odds – persistence guarantees eventual wins.
Persist for 3 years and you could accumulate over 100 points. Use these points and even popular stocks become winnable!
⑤ Apply Through Lead Underwriters
Lead underwriters get ~80-90% of shares – overwhelmingly higher odds. Check each IPO’s lead underwriter and apply through them.
⑥ Target Less Popular IPOs
Super popular stocks have extremely high competition. B-C rated IPOs have lower competition, making them easier to win.
• Actively apply for A-C rated stocks
• Be cautious with D-rated stocks (high breaking risk)
• Use IPO rating sites for reference
⑦ Apply to Every IPO
Obviously, not applying means zero chance. Consistently applying every time is most important.
“Using multiple accounts × family accounts, I win 5-10 times per year” “Accumulated IPO Challenge Points for 3 years and won a popular stock” – many success stories like these!
9. Latest IPO Schedule
Currently available IPOs and upcoming listings.
10. Risks and Considerations
IPO Investment Risks
Not all IPOs rise. About 20-30% have opening prices below offering prices (“breaking issue”).
Characteristics of IPOs prone to breaking:
- Large offering size (¥100B+ large IPOs)
- High public offering ratio (30%+)
- Unprofitable or low growth
- Poor market conditions at listing
- Re-listing cases
IPO Characteristics to Avoid
| Risk Factor | Description |
|---|---|
| Large IPOs | High offering amounts lead to loose supply/demand, harder for prices to rise |
| Re-listings | Previously listed companies returning to market tend to be less popular |
| High VC Selling | Seen as founders/VCs cashing out, tends to be avoided |
| High Public Offering Ratio | More supply makes price increases difficult |
| Late December Listings | Year-end capital dispersion and IPO concentration increase competition |
| Unprofitable Companies | Low growth expectations, investors avoid |
Skip D-rated IPOs and only apply to popular stocks. Use rating sites like “IPO Kabu” to judge whether to apply.
11. FAQ
12. Summary
IPO investing is an attractive method targeting high win rate, low risk, and high returns.
- 22-year average win rate: approximately 81%
- Legendary HEROZ achieved +¥4,450,000 profit!
- Small investments can return 2x, 3x, sometimes 5x+
- Open multiple securities accounts to increase odds
- Use no-deposit brokers (Matsui, Nomura, Mizuho, Okasan, DMM)
- Accumulate SBI IPO Challenge Points for eventual wins
- Skip D-rated IPOs, aim for A-C rated
The secrets to IPO success are “Multiple accounts” + “Apply every time” + “Persist”.
Start by opening accounts at SBI, Monex, and Matsui!
1️⃣ SBI Securities – #1 underwriting! IPO Challenge Points
2️⃣ Monex Securities – 100% equal lottery
3️⃣ Matsui Securities – No deposit required, best capital efficiency
🚀 Start Your IPO Journey Today!
SBI Securities is the top choice — #1 in IPO underwriting with the unique Challenge Points system!
Account opening is completely free. Start trading as early as the next business day!
▶ Open Free SBI Securities Account
Get 100 V Points bonus when you sign up through this link!
IPO schedules and systems may change. Investment decisions are your responsibility. Consult financial institutions or professionals as needed. This does not recommend purchasing specific financial products. Please understand the risk of principal loss before making decisions.